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Polymarket Bettors Place Their Wagers: Will HBO Reveal Satoshi Nakamoto?

[Oct 4 3:46 PM] After the announcement that Satoshi Nakamoto’s true identity could be unmasked next week in an HBO documentary, Polymarket bettors are buzzing with excitement, speculating who it might be. On Friday, with $190,533 wagered, Len Sassaman…

Polymarket Bettors Say HBO Documentary Will Name Len Sassaman as Satoshi Nakamoto

[Oct 4 9:05 AM] But bettors are also confident that this won't be the smoking gun

Election Fever Pushes Polymarket to $533M in September, Setting New Records

[Oct 3 4:10 PM] Polymarket hit new milestones in September, with trading volume climbing to $533.51 million, exceeding August’s $472 million. The blockchain-based predictions platform also saw a rise in active users, reaching 90,037, up 26,421 from the prior…

US appeals court greenlights election prediction markets

[Oct 2 7:16 PM] The ruling paves the way for election prediction markets to operate in the United States.

Crypto at a Pivotal Moment

[Oct 2 3:16 PM] The U.S. election combined with an easier monetary environment could spark the next crypto bull market, says David Lawant.

Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion

[Sep 30 2:43 PM] Kamala Harris only leads by one percentage point, but is set to carry most of the swing states.

Polymarket Predicts 61% Chance of 2024 Bitcoin All-Time High, 17% for $100K

[Sep 29 12:45 PM] With bitcoin trading above $65K, crypto enthusiasts are anticipating big price moves in October. Many still believe BTC will exceed its all-time high before the year ends. On Polymarket, a blockchain-powered predictions platform, the odds currently…

Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge

[Sep 23 11:15 PM] Investors in the proposed round would get warrants to buy tokens in the event the prediction market decides to issue one, The Information reported.

CFTC eyeing Polymarket, betting platforms amid US elections: Law Decoded

[Sep 23 7:05 PM] Polymarket and other offshore platforms are under CFTC scrutiny for compliance, and the SEC and German authorities are ramping up crypto crackdowns.

Caroline Ellison Most Likely Won't Serve Time, Polymarket Traders Bet

[Sep 23 2:05 PM] The market is skeptical about Qualcomm's Intel deal; prediction markets were the talk of the town at Token2049 in Singapore.

Kamala Harris leading in 4 of 6 swing states on Polymarket

[Sep 22 5:28 PM] According to the current Polymarket odds, 77% of participants believe Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win the popular vote.

Betting Markets and Polls Show Harris Ahead of Trump as Election Nears

[Sep 22 3:30 PM] With only 44 days remaining until the U.S. election, the blockchain-powered predictions market Polymarket shows Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead in a wager against former President Donald Trump. As of Sunday, Sept. 22, Harris holds 52%…

CFTC eyeing Polymarket, betting platforms amid elections, says chair

[Sep 18 5:49 AM] If an offshore entity’s “footprint” in the US is big enough, they must register their derivative contracts or risk facing enforcement actions, says CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam.

CME Futures and Polymarket Predict Jumbo 50bps Rate Cut – Will the Fed Deliver?

[Sep 16 6:05 PM] As the U.S. central bank members prepare for their meeting on Wednesday, just a day ago, the likelihood of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut versus a 50bps cut was evenly split at 50-50. Fast forward to today, and the odds are now tipping in favor of…

Second Assassination Attempt Barely Moves Trump's Polymarket Odds

[Sep 16 3:30 PM] Nearly $1 billion has been bet on the crypto-based prediction market. Plus: are you ready for 20x leveraged election betting?

‘Explosion’ in election gambling will harm public interest: CFTC

[Sep 16 3:14 AM] The US commodities regulator says prediction markets can be vulnerable to “spectacular manipulation.”

Fedwatch Tool Shows 50-50 Chance for 25bps or 50bps Cut Before FOMC

[Sep 15 2:30 PM] The market is holding out hope for a bigger rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet on Wednesday. Predictions from Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest there’s a growing expectation that a 50 basis points…

Bettors on Polymarket See 69% Chance of Trump Launching a Token Before Election

[Sep 14 3:05 PM] Two days ago, former President Donald Trump made headlines by announcing his family’s decentralized finance (defi) platform, World Liberty Financial, boldly claiming the initiative is “embracing the future with crypto.” Meanwhile, over on…

Polymarket Bettors See 84% Chance of Donald Trump Starting His Own Token

[Sep 13 11:54 AM] The bump came as Trump said he would launch the family-helmed World Liberty Financial project on Monday.

Fed Rate Decision Looms as Market Predicts 25bps Cut With 87% Probability

[Sep 12 4:30 PM] With just six days to go before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut is growing stronger by the day. The possibility of a 50bps cut remains slim, though it still…

Will Trump and Harris Debate Again? Polymarket Bets Say There’s a 60% Chance

[Sep 12 1:30 PM] According to Polymarket’s betting odds, there’s a 60% chance we’ll see another debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, even though no additional debates are currently scheduled beyond the one held on Sept. 10�

Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Heated Debate, Polymarket Shows

[Sep 11 7:15 PM] Following the heated debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Polymarket data revealed an intense tie between the two from 6 a.m. to 12 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, with each holding a 49% chance of winning. By 2:30…

Harris Won U.S. Presidential Debate Versus Trump, Polymarket Betting Suggests

[Sep 11 3:43 AM] Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have beaten former President Donald Trump in the first debate between the U.S. presidential candidates on Tuesday, based on the direction of prediction bets on Polymarket, while crypto policy went unmentioned.

Trump-Harris Debate: Polymarket Shows Slim Odds of Crypto Mention

[Sep 10 4:07 PM]

Harris Leads in Debate Betting, But Trump Dominates Swing States, Polymarket Shows

[Sep 9 9:10 PM] A wager valued at $155K on the prediction platform Polymarket is betting on Vice President Kamala Harris emerging victorious in Tuesday’s debate against former President Donald Trump. According to the latest polls, Harris holds a commanding…

Polymarket’s Traffic and Trading Volume Soar, $137.3M in September’s First 9 Days

[Sep 9 3:32 PM] In just over a week, the blockchain-powered prediction market platform Polymarket has generated an impressive $137.3 million in trading volume, already outpacing the total volume recorded during June and all prior months this year. Last Friday…

Kamala Harris Will 'Win' First Debate With Trump, Polymarket Traders Are Betting

[Sep 9 2:19 PM] Also, there are now prediction market contracts about other prediction market contracts.

Trump Leads Harris by 7%, Wins Majority of Swing States, Polymarket Betting Shows

[Sep 5 3:35 PM] According to recent Polymarket data, former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by seven percentage points as of Sept. 5, 2024. Polymarket’s betting on six key swing states shows Trump leading in four, including Arizona…

Vitalik Buterin says AI prediction markets can make X Community Notes faster

[Sep 3 8:18 AM] Buterin said that the biggest criticism of X’s Community Notes is that they do not appear fast enough. 

Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger Reduction

[Sep 2 4:40 PM] On Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on…