If U.S. Election Is Disputed, Prediction Markets Could Face 'Hornet's Nest'
[Nov 4 3:29 PM] How will Polymarket and Kalshi resolve their presidential bets if there's another Jan. 6 or Bush v. Gore situation?
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Crypto whales bet big on Trump win ahead of US election
[Nov 4 12:42 PM] Crypto prediction markets see major Trump bets as whales control 50% of “Yes” shares ahead of the US election, sparking debate on political odds accuracy.
Trump dump: Crypto liquidations hit $350M as Bitcoin drops below $69K
[Nov 4 5:55 AM] Donald Trump’s winning odds on Polymarket narrowed and Bitcoin's price dip prompted big liquidations.
Memecoins That Toot and Saylor Steps in Poop
[Nov 3 9:30 AM] From memecoins to accusations of Polymarket manipulation to Michael Saylor’s bizarre custodial comments, last week in crypto was certainly exciting. This editorial is from last week’s edition of the Week in Review newsletter. Subscribe to the…
Transparent Illusion: The Discrepancy in Polymarket’s Volume
[Nov 2 7:10 PM] The recent surge in prediction markets has coincided with the upcoming presidential election, as those seeking a supplement to traditional polling look to new methodologies. As election day draws closer, established prediction markets have seen…
Frenchman behind Trump Polymarket pump has ‘no political agenda’ — WSJ
[Nov 1 8:38 PM] Polymarket data showed four accounts reportedly controlled by French national ‘Théo’ bet roughly $38 million for Donald Trump to win the US Electoral College and the popular vote.
Kalshi rolls out more betting markets ahead of US elections
[Nov 1 7:16 PM] The US-based prediction market is vying to catch up with industry leader Polymarket.
Harris Odds Rise on Polymarket as 'Election Fraud' Allegations Ramp Up Trump Hedge Bets
[Nov 1 8:45 AM] At current prices, a $10,000 punt on Harris could equal a $25,000 payout if she wins the U.S. presidential election.
Crypto Slumps Alongside Trump's Victory Odds on Polymarket as Uncertainty and Profit-Taking Rise
[Oct 31 7:54 PM] The final stretch of the U.S. presidential election is keeping traders on their toes, with BTC and Trump Polymarket odds taking a small hit.
Polymarket presidential election odds rife with wash trading — report
[Oct 30 10:09 PM] According to the current Polymarket presidential election odds, Donald Trump is favored to win the election at 65.5%.
Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading
[Oct 30 5:08 PM] As much as a third of the prediction market's volume is inflated by traders buying and selling the same shares repeatedly, Fortune reported, citing blockchain researchers. They could be doing it to farm a future airdropped token.
Bitcoin in bullish setup ahead of election: VanEck
[Oct 28 6:33 PM] The investment manager’s long-term model puts BTC’s price at roughly $3 million by 2050.
US Election Bettors Double Down: Trump’s Path to Victory Grows, but Is It Enough?
[Oct 27 2:10 PM] According to the latest data from Polymarket, gathered eight days before the 2024 U.S. Election Day, former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on the predictions platform. Odds Tilt Toward Trump as Bettors…
Polymarket’s Staggering Growth in October — Will Post-Election Events Keep the Momentum Going?
[Oct 26 1:25 PM] Based on Dune Analytics’ latest figures, the prediction market Polymarket’s October volume has soared to over three times what it was in September. Polymarket Continues to Hit All-Time Highs In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. election between former…
Markets Are Telling Us Something About the US Election
[Oct 26 12:05 PM] This editorial is from last week’s edition of the newsletter Week in Review. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter to get the editorial the second it’s finished. Polymarket, Traditional Markets, and Crypto Markets Are Predicting a Trump Victory A…
Polymarket's vision 'still isn't' to be a political website, says founder
[Oct 26 5:00 AM] The founder of Polymarket claims that the platform "is not about politics" as it takes "center stage" in the lead up to the United States presidential election.
Polymarket Is a Success for Polygon Blockchain – Everywhere But the Bottom Line
[Oct 25 7:11 PM] One of the major breakout successes this year for the team behind layer-2 blockchain Polygon is Polymarket. But according to data, Polymarket has only brought in about $27,000 of transaction fees for Polygon PoS in 2024.
Polymarket Trader Betting on Donald Trump Win Ends Up Getting 99% Odds
[Oct 25 7:16 AM] Low liquidity led to massive slippage for one entity trying to buy up Trump “yes” shares in a short period.
Activist Group Says Kalshi’s Election Market Should Be Shut Due to 'Manipulative' Whales
[Oct 24 6:51 PM] Better Markets is using Polymarket's "French connection" as ammo against the prediction market's regulated competitor.
Polymarket claims to have identified Trump whale
[Oct 24 4:59 PM] According to the current Polymarket 2024 US election odds, former President Trump is favored to win all six US swing states.
Trump Polymarket Odds Briefly Dip After His No. 2 Bull Adds Bet on Harris
[Oct 23 7:46 PM] The former president's probability of retaking the White House slid to 59% Wednesday before rebounding.
Kalshi adds global elections to betting platform
[Oct 23 3:04 PM] The US's first election betting market has added contracts for trading on national elections from Australia to Ecuador, public filings show.
Polymarket is scanning for US users as election odds skew toward Trump: Report
[Oct 23 5:52 AM] Donald Trump now has 63.7% odds on Polymarket to win the US presidential election, but voter polls suggest otherwise.
Bitcoin options traders say $80K is a given as Trump victory odds spike
[Oct 22 6:30 PM] Bitcoin’s brief rally to $69,000 maybe have been “driven by speculation” for a Trump victory. Meanwhile, BTC options traders say $80,000 is programmed.
World's Largest Prediction Market Polymarket Is Trump Biased
[Oct 22 2:35 PM] Seeing Bitcoin's price rally as Donald Trump takes the lead on the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, made me do some research on what Polymarket is and who uses it. And now I have to say — I believe that Polymarket leans pro-Trump. We…
No, Polymarket Whales Aren't Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation
[Oct 21 6:10 PM] If you think the Trump bulls are wrong, bet against them.
Trump Takes Commanding Lead Over Harris on Prediction Markets After McDonald’s Appearance
[Oct 21 5:35 PM] Former President Donald Trump reached a new high on the predictions market Polymarket on Monday rising to 62.6% while his competitor Vice President Kamala Harris now stands with a 37.5% lead. The news follows Trump joining the team at a McDonald’s…
U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction
[Oct 21 5:01 PM] In just three weeks, Kalshi's presidential prediction market has passed $30M in volume. It still trails Polymarket's $2 billion.
Prediction markets are not being manipulated — Kalshi founder
[Oct 20 10:01 PM] The most recent Polymarket odds put Trump's chances of winning the 2024 Presidential election at 60.3% and winning all six swing states.
Polymarket Election Buzz: Why Trump’s Lead Is Stirring Skeptics and Memes Alike
[Oct 20 1:17 PM] Following former President Donald Trump gaining a dominant lead in his odds against Vice President Kamala Harris for the 2024 election, as tracked by Polymarket bettors, a group of skeptics suspects the odds are being skewed by large-scale…