Polymarket Contradicts Its Oracle Service in Rarity for Prediction Market
[Jun 26, 2024 8:21 PM] Nearly all UMA voters said that the son of Donald Trump was not involved in the creation of the DJT token
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Vivek Ramaswamy’s VP Prospects Spike 1,100% on Prediction Market Polymarket
[Jun 26, 2024 10:15 AM] Following speculation that former President Donald Trump might select Republican Vivek Ramaswamy as his vice presidential candidate, Ramaswamy’s chances have significantly increased on prediction platforms like Polymarket. Over the last three…
Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Not Presidency, Prediction Market Signals
[Jun 24, 2024 10:22 AM] Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the "preponderance of evidence" shows Barron Trump's involvement.
Trump and Biden Likely Won't Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says
[Jun 17, 2024 4:07 PM] Meanwhile, there's a prediction market on whether the U.K. newspaper The Guardian will correct an article about prediction markets.
Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.
[Jun 11, 2024 10:49 AM] With a 56% chance of winning, according to the prediction market's traders, the former president has a 22-point lead over the incumbent, far bigger than what the polls indicate.
Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets
[Jun 3, 2024 5:29 PM] Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts.
Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote
[May 27, 2024 4:04 PM] Plus, how much longshot money was made betting on the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF?
Will RFK Jr. Debate Trump or Biden? Probably Not, Prediction Market Says
[May 20, 2024 7:31 AM] Plus: Which cat-themed meme coin will hit $1 billion first?
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket
[May 14, 2024 8:00 AM] The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding close to $75 million.
Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls
[May 13, 2024 8:10 AM] Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election.
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
[May 10, 2024 10:11 AM] The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the…
Polymarket Bets Reflect Low Confidence in Ethereum ETF Approval by SEC
[May 7, 2024 7:33 AM] According to a wager on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, the likelihood of a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission currently stands at just 7%. This forecast…
Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
[May 6, 2024 6:34 AM] Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Eigenlayer releases EIGEN white paper, bans airdrop for US users
[Apr 29, 2024 2:00 PM] The EIGEN token will be used to form consensus around data that is off-chain but easily verifiable, such as whether someone won a bet or adequately stored data.
Binance's CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet
[Apr 29, 2024 8:15 AM] Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it's already illegal in most U.S. states.
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
[Apr 22, 2024 8:23 AM] Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don't think Taylor Swift will break…
How to Design Better On-Chain Governance
[Mar 27, 2024 10:22 AM] An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.
How Many Years Will SBF Get? Jury's Out on Betting Platform Polymarket
[Mar 25, 2024 6:56 AM] Plus: Tesla's delivery numbers will fall short of record, Kalshi traders signal; "Ghostbusters" fandom underestimated.
Nearly $100M Wagered on U.S. Presidential Election on Polymarket
[Mar 18, 2024 7:49 AM] Blockchain bettors see a clear path to victory for Trump, and are bullish on ether hitting an all-time high in 2024 – but SOL might get there first, thanks to "memecoin March."
U.S. CFTC's Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets
[Mar 12, 2024 8:26 AM] U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam said his agency will propose a rule in the coming months to establish new regulations for prediction markets.
He Exposed Harvard President's Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story
[Jan 20, 2024 11:00 AM] Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay's resignation – though he's yet to profit from his scoops.
Bitcoin ETF Frenzy Brings Windfall Volume to Decentralized Predictions Platform Polymarket
[Jan 11, 2024 3:45 AM] Polymarket saw betting contracts worth more than $5.7 million change hands on Wednesday.
CFTC Chief: Nothing Changed After FTX Meltdown to Empower Agency to Prevent Repeat
[Nov 15, 2023 10:11 AM] U.S. regulators don't have any more authority now to head off another major crypto collapse than they did when FTX imploded and took much of the industry with it, said Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam.
Prediction Market Kalshi Sues U.S. CFTC for Denying Its Contracts for Congressional Elections
[Nov 1, 2023 4:42 PM] Prediction market Kalshi is suing the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for denying its effort to list derivatives for betting on the outcome of political events – specifically which party will control each chamber of the U.S…
Americans (Seemingly) Aren't Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test
[Sep 22, 2023 1:19 PM]
CFTC Denies Kalshi’s Plan to Let Users Bet on Control of U.S. Congress
[Sep 22, 2023 7:11 AM] Regulators said the plans weren't in the public interest, after a court squabble involving rival service PredictIt
Users on Ethereum’s Decentralized Polymarket Speculate on Biden’s Impeachment
[Sep 18, 2023 4:00 PM] After the Republican House of Representatives speaker, Kevin McCarthy, directed the House to open an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden, bettors on the cryptocurrency-powered Polymarket platform have started placing bets on whether Biden will be…
BitMEX's Prediction Market Is Now Live
[Sep 12, 2023 11:42 PM] Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.
Polymarket Wagers Favor Trump for Nomination; Ramaswamy’s Bid Gains Momentum
[Aug 25, 2023 2:30 PM] Following the initial Republican debate and an exclusive interview between Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson on the social media platform X, wagers on the decentralized prediction marketplace Polymarket suggest Trump is leading, with presidential…
CFTC Kicks Off Review of Kalshi's Congressional Control Prediction Markets
[Jun 23, 2023 8:59 PM] The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission began a formal review and public comment period to evaluate prediction market Kalshi's proposed contracts to bet on who will control Congress.