“Let him cook” has been the expression that all of the young whippersnappers are using lately when describing somebody or something that shouldn’t be interrupted, because they are on a roll.
I know this piece will come across as annoying to some, especially because I have only been bullish on bitcoin with some gusto for the last couple of months (though I first pointed it out to my readers in December 2022), but as a newfound member of the church of bitcoin community, I’d be remiss if I didn’t try out my voice a bit.
I apologize in advance for opining on things that many members of planet bitcoin have talked about and debated ad nauseam for the last decade. But, one way or another, I have to get myself up to speed, and I do that best cathartically through writing. As a result, you, the reader, are left here to suffer. So, you know, don’t forget to renew your paid subscriptions to Fringe Finance.
Enough with the prelude — we all know it has been a breathtaking week for bitcoin, which is up well over 20% in just the span of days.
The moves have done well to spin up even more interest in the cryptocurrency than there was over the last month with the launch of the ETFs. Hell, even Morgan Stanley came out this week and said they were thinking of throwing their hat into the ring and launching a bitcoin fund of their own.
I’ve gotten a number of phone calls and texts about bitcoin, and I’m not even a prominent member of the community, nor am I a well-known bull. And so I can’t even imagine the outreach that maximalists and longtime advocates have seen this week.
Undoubtedly, it is exciting, and I can’t even imagine how long people have been waiting to savor this moment, after years of abuse from family members and uninformed assholes like myself, as well as general doubt about the asset class. But, if there is one small lesson I have learned from decades in the capital markets that I think translates across asset classes, it is to celebrate modestly and prepare for the worst.
That may seem like the furthest thing from people's minds this week, but for me, it has always been the best way to savor success. Many people who listened to the podcast that I did a couple of weeks ago with Peter McCormack know that it was arrogance and hubris that turned me off from bitcoin to begin with. Perhaps that is my fault for not having an open enough mind and not doing enough of my own work – it’s a mistake that saw me miss out on large gains. But today I’m speaking as one of the people who can visualize bitcoin as a long-term success and are genuinely excited about onboarding the rest of the world.
My Twitter feed over the last week has been replete with people triumphantly celebrating, bragging, and taking shots at those who doubted that the price would ever go back up again. Here’s one example from my brother James Lavish, who I know well enough to know he won’t mind me using him as an example because he knows I respect the shit out of him. Behold Exhibit A: James talking shit to Vanguard.
Does James have a point? Yes, he does. Could be wind up being right 50 years from now also? Yes, he could. But is it karmically sound to taunt the $7.7 trillion bear? To me, not really. I’d rather just savor the satisfaction of the temporary dub quietly.
Everybody is well within their rights to celebrate this short-term action anyway they would like, but what I’m suggesting today is that karmically and psychologically, the less you force the issue and the more humility you show, the more evenly and consistently bitcoin will thread itself through the rest of the world.
Think of this: celebrating making an exorbitant amount of money or rage-tweeting about your success is going to do two things: (1)it’s going to turn off people like myself who think that behavior is generally synonymous with fraud and (2) it’s going to excite investors with lower-than-average sophistication who will look for quick riches and won’t be the steady hands bitcoin needs to become a perpetual success.
Rather, what I’m suggesting is to allow the news media to do what they do (generally be useless and chase stories long after they’ve happened) and allow people to come to the realization about bitcoin the same way that I did: on my own, once I felt as though I wasn’t being suffocated with the idea by outside sources anymore.
My interest in looking at bitcoin this go-round in early 2024 was completely organic: the news coverage of it had died down, and I had blocked or unfollowed enough people who were hyping it that I could have some clarity and some peace of mind about it when I sat down to consider how it worked, seriously, for the first time ever. It was that calm, relaxed, blank slate that allowed me to grasp the relatively complex concepts of how it worked and believe in it the way that I do now.
I think given the astronomical week that we just had, we’d be better off to “act like we’ve been here before” and to remember that sometimes the more you push an idea, the more people are prone to resistance than barking like hyenas and taunting people. If bitcoin had a $50 trillion market cap, that’d be a different story. But we’re still in the early stages of this courtship with the rest of the world and, like any good relationship or friendship in your life, there has to be a genuine organic interest in “showing up” to the idea of it happening. All of those who have been smothered by a partner or a friend in the past know that all it does is create distortions and unhealthy dynamics. Such delicate things cannot be forced, but rather, accepted willfully like a slow, purposeful deep breath outside on a winter day.
This is not to say that I don’t believe this week is the beginning of much larger adoption that would likely drive the price of bitcoin higher. As I said on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, I believe that there is at least one, if not several, nation-states looking at putting bitcoin on their sovereign balance sheets, and that this will kick off a period of game theory for the digital asset revolution the likes of which we haven’t seen yet. Just days after I said that, yesterday Edward Snowden came out and postulated the same.
Try to keep up with me, Eddie.
But in all seriousness, we know what will happen if the price continues to rise. The hype will continue to flywheel further, as will interest and adoption. People will have the same realization that it took me a decade to figure out: this thing simply isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. But if you ask me, especially given the fact that we all know how quickly price moves can whipsaw back to the downside in the short term, I think the community would be well served to focus less on spiking the football here and more on how we will be able to clearly explain and convey the transformation that is unfolding before our eyes in a calm, measured, and comprehensive way.
After all, whose questions do you want to deal with on the next 20% overnight whipsaw lower: unsophisticated maniacs or measured investors who already know and expect the volatility that is a certainty.
And the more time we spend setting reasonable expectations that bitcoin can easily exceed, instead of overpromising and underdelivering, the less time we have to brag about being right. The journey is the reward. Or, as the bible says:
“When pride comes, then comes disgrace, but with humility comes wisdom.”
— Proverbs 11:2
But I think if Jesus were around today, he would simply tell us to “let bitcoin cook”.
QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. I didn’t double check any numbers or figures in this piece and am generally lazy with my research. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. Contributor posts and curated content are posted either with the author’s permission or under a Creative Commons license. This is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. Sometimes I just lose money by misplacing it. I’m generally irresponsible. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. Do your research elsewhere. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it numerous times because it’s that important that you.
This piece was originally published on Quoth the Raven's Substack here.
This is a guest post by Quoth the Raven. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine - Bitcoin News, Articles and Expert Insights