A recently published survey by Bankrate reveals that there is a 3-in-5 likelihood of a recession occurring in the United States within the next year. Bankrate’s survey of economists firmly indicates that the chances of a recession taking place in the U.S. are greater than the chances of it not happening.
Bankrate Survey: 3-in-5 Chance of U.S. Recession in Next Year
According to economists surveyed by Bankrate, the probability of a recession occurring in the U.S. is significant. The survey, published on July 12, 2023, reveals that Bankrate’s experts estimate a 59% chance of a recession taking place by July 2024. Bankrate states that the expert forecasts “suggest a downturn is more probable than not.”
“Illustrating those odds even more, most respondents (78 percent) indicated that the percentage chance of a recession was greater than 1-in-2, while 28 percent said the odds were 70 percent or higher,” Bankrate’s Sarah Foster writes.
Bankrate’s most recent poll is not the sole survey indicating experts’ belief in an impending recession in the United States. ITR Economics forecasts a macroeconomic recession commencing in late 2023 and extending throughout 2024. HSBC Asset Management predicts a downturn for the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2023, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024”
The Bankrate survey underscores numerous factors that contribute to the prediction of an impending recession. These factors include a substantial increase in interest rates, strict monetary policy, bank failures, inverted bond yields, and other vulnerabilities in the global economy.
“Given the aggressive tightening by the Fed, the most likely outcome is a recession,” stated Abbey Omodunbi, senior economist at PNC Financial Services, in an interview with Bankrate.
Alongside Bankrate’s poll, Statista’s projections reveal a forecasted probability of 70.85% that the United States will experience another economic recession by May 2024. Scott Anderson, the chief economist and executive vice president at Bank of the West, believes that a downturn is probable this year.
“We are still on the path toward at least a mild downturn in the U.S. economy around the end of the year,” Anderson told Bankrate.
What steps do you think should be taken to mitigate the impact of a potential recession in the United States? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
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