Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a remarkable run during the first quarter of 2023, with a year-to-date increase of 69%. Bitcoin is trying to break its consolidation level and surpass its nearest resistance to breach the long-awaited $30,000 psychological level, which will introduce a new normal to the market and the new fully formed bull run.
As of this writing, the industry’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading at $29,200, posting a profit of over 3% in the last 24 hours. Will Bitcoin continue its bull run through 2023 and the 2024 halving cycle?
BTC’s Bull Run It’s Just Getting Started
According to a recent analysis by the CryptoQuant team, the correlation between BTC and the technology-related index Nasdaq 100 has weakened, dropping 60% from October’s 0.75 to the current value of 0.3. This can indicate that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly independent of traditional markets.
According to the analysis, BTC’s market behavior can be divided into two main phases over a longer time frame; accumulation and distribution. During the accumulation phase, it is known that investors buy and hold Bitcoin, which causes its price to rise. In contrast, during the distribution phase, investors sell, causing the price to fall.
Bitcoin’s history is characterized by halving events that occur approximately every four years. As seen in the chart above, there is typically an accumulation phase in which institutional investors increase their Bitcoin purchases before each halving event. This trend has been observed in recent months as more financial institutions have adopted cryptocurrencies amidst the banking crisis that has impacted the traditional financial system.
Halving events are significant because they reduce the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation, making it more difficult for miners to earn rewards for verifying transactions. This, in turn, leads to a reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin on the market, which can cause an increase in demand and therefore drive up the price.
If Bitcoin maintains its bullish momentum and consolidates above the $30,000 mark, it could potentially align with the next halving cycle. According to CryptoQuant analysis, if this happens, it could be relatively straightforward to see BTC reaching $100,000 in the aftermath of the 2024 halving event.
Whales Lead The RallyAccording to the crypto analysis and research firm Material Indicators, the recent uptrend of Bitcoin to the $29,000 mark has been led by “Mega Whales.” According to Material Indicators, the rally has resulted in a shift in the ladders of ask liquidity, which refers to the depth of sell orders at various price points.
This shift has made it easier for BTC’s price to increase, indicating a positive market sentiment. However, according to Materials, there is a lack of liquidity above $30,000, so there may not be as much interest in clearing that level yet.
Furthermore, ask liquidity has been shifting upwards over the last 24 hours, indicating uncertainty, according to the analysis firm. They further suggest that if Bitcoin’s price reaches an illiquid zone, it could surge quickly, resulting in a rapid price increase.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com
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